A few days ago, for Christmas, I talked about what I want to happen in the future of MMOGs. Now I’m going to run down a few things that I think actually will happen in the coming year. I’m going to do this as a series of general statements, with the idea being I’ll score myself around this time next year. I’m just a guy, of course, and I expect a number of them will be very wrong. That’s the fun of this, though, right?

1. Burning Problems – The launch of the expansion to World of Warcraft is going to cause Blizzard bigtime headaches. Their advances over the last six months with server downtime and queues will be temporarily wiped out as everyone who cancelled their account reups to check out the new content. Eventually, this will result in even more impressive subscriptions for the game, as new people get hooked by the hoopla, but in the short term it will cost Blizzard some good will. Update 02/2007: Wrong. Launch went flawlessly.
2. That Not So Fresh Feeling – At least one of the MMOGs slated to launch this year is going to end up being kind of a stinker; reviewers and players who turn away from the game will do so because of ’stale gameplay’. The same-old-same-old of Massive games is already old hat, and just because it has shiny graphics doesn’t mean it’s going to do that well.
3. Less Is Better Than More – The monthly fee-less games will continue to gain in popularity in 2007. With Dungeon Runners and Guild Wars both proving out NCSoft’s wisdom, other companies will begin to consider changing up the usual box-and-a-monthly-sub costs. At least one major U.S. Massive game will offer a substantially different payment setup than the monthly subscription by the end of the year.
4. Raph’s Rabbit – Whatever Raph has planned will prove to be an eyebrow raiser. Even if it’s not the Next Big Thing, Areae’s product announcement will end up sounding like a pretty good deal and will be a constant topic of conversation towards the end of the year. We won’t see whatever it is live in 2007. Update 09/2007: They announced Metaplace. Right on the ‘not live in 2007′, not sure it’s had the splash yet.
5. Later is Worse Than Sooner – One of the big MMOGs slated for release ’soon’ or in 2007 is not going to make it out this year. Whatever game it is, gamers will increasingly think of it as a lost cause, and you’ll see less public interest in the game going forward. MMOG players will have a lot to distract them this year, and anyone who isn’t doing laps is going to be sinking.
6. Bio-Shocking – Whatever Bioware has planned is going to make people really excited. Like “I Want the game to come out now” excited. We’re not going to get so much as a trailer until the end of the year, and interviews with the development team will continue to make jaded MMOG players and designers scornful.
7. Beggar’s Canyon -Â SOE is finally going to get off its ass and do *something* with Star Wars Galaxies. They’ll can it, they’ll announce a new expansion for it, they’ll totally revamp some aspect of the game … something. Whatever it is will either save the game or be the final nail for an already strung out player base.
8. Ever Awesome – 2007 will be the year EverQuest 2 finally gets its due. Good fallout from Faydwer and hype for the next expansion, as well as players looking for an alternative from WoW, will swell the ranks of SOE’s flagship. We’ll start hearing boastful subscription numbers out of them, as they start to get back into the range EQ Live inhabited back in the good old days a few years back.
9. Newbie – A company that has, as of yet, not published a Massive game will announce their intention to do so. They’ll promise the moon, and will have already failed and announced the end of the project by December.
10. Fallout Fallout – The Fallout MMOG will be canceled, with little explanation as to what happened.
11. In Space … – Eve Online will continue to do crazy-awesome well, with their end-of-year numbers at the end of 2007 simply blowing peoples minds. Their cellphone skill/trading app will be very successful, and the company will announce and possibly release another expansion in the next 12 months. CCP will announce the particulars of their White Wolf MMOG by the end of the year.
12. Gutshot – The release of one of the new generation of heavyweights will prove devastating to a member of the old guard. A game we all think of today as stable and healthy will be a shadow of its former self by the end of the year.

2007’s Winners: Warhammer Online, Eve Online, EverQuest 2, Guild Wars
2007’s Losers: Star Wars Galaxies, Gods and Heroes, Vanguard, Dark Age of Camelot Update: 10/2007 Wish I’d been wrong about Gods and Heroes.