Jan 26
On AAA Fantasy MMOs as ‘Solved Problems’
A while back Steve Danuser put up a post weighing in on the fate of Tabula Rasa. His was but one of many, with Scott, Damion, Eric, and Adam all putting in their two cents as well. I can’t hope to add anything to this discussion that hasn’t already been mulled by these guys, but I do want to clarify something that Steve links into. He says, “So if these guys are so smart, and if making a AAA epic fantasy MMO is a solved problem, then why did so many games have a rough year in 2008?”
“Making a AAA fantasy game is a solved problem” is something I said in my 2008 MMO wrapup on Gamasutra, and it’s something I’ve said frequently in the past. And I mean it. AAA fantasy games are ‘solved’, the formulae is complete, development and iteration on that particular niche of the niche market can stop now.
I never said anything about making one being easy.
In fact, I’d probably be one of the last guys on the face of the planet to tell you anything associated with making an MMO is easy. I’ve never helped make one, I’m not a designer, but I definitely have had a lot of opportunities to see how challenging, strenuous, and sometimes soul-crushing it is to hew one of these beasts from the raw energies of human creativity.
When I said AAA fantasy games are a ‘solved’ problem, I mean purely from the design point of view. World of Warcraft is a niche fantasy title with simply enormous appeal. The mix of PvE, PvP, dungeons, instances, etc. etc is … if not perfect, then good enough for government work. At this particular place and time, I simply don’t see the market need for another huge-budgeted fantasy MMO. That niche is ‘filled’, and any new products trying to break into that niche will have an almost-impossible obstacle to overcome.
The problem with my outlook here, which you’ve probably already spotted, is that timeframes when you’re talking MMOs is always problematic. When the average MMO can take 3+ years to make, you’ve always got to be looking out ahead of where the market is right now. The games in development right now were probably kicked off after about two years of WoW; think about the huge difference in World of Warcraft’s design between 2006 and 2009. That’s a lot of supposition to make. And some suppositions from that timeframe haven’t paid off.
Warhammer and Conan were both made looking “beyond WoW”, with the hope and assumption that World of Warcraft players would want something kind of like what they’d already played, “but different”. Despite what their PR may have been, both of those titles were direct runs at WoW’s niche, and they both failed to achieve their goals as set out by the developers.
That said, I believe WAR is in a good position to grow based on the team’s extraordinary skill, dedication, and the very strong IP the game is rooted into. I worry about Conan. A lot.
All of this is the basis for my statement that AAA Fantasy games are ‘solved’, and simply reinforces my opinion that MMO developers should be seeking out a new niche in the market. Superhero MMOs are already on the move, with three different games vying for the position as pre-eminent title. That level of competition (something fantasy MMOs have had all along) is something I think will be extremely healthy for that genre.
Sci-fi has suffered mightily since the genre blossomed, but we’re now seeing a bunch of titles on the horizon that look like they’ll finally give that respectable storytelling milieu its due. The Old Republic is the obvious one, of course, but everything from Jumpgate Evolution to Star Trek Online has a chance to offer up that ‘perfect fit’. There are quite a few ‘real world’ MMOs in the works as well, and the free-to-play space is carving out niches AAA players didn’t even think about a few years back. A penguin MMO, a cartoon MMO, puzzle MMOs … it’s a cornucopia of goodness.
This, all this stuff above, is healthy. What SOE is doing (Free Realms, Agency, DCUO), what Cryptic is doing (Champions, Star Trek), is healthy. Even NCsoft (bless em’) made Tabula Rasa with the expectation that moving away from AAA fantasy was the right thing to do.
If you’re currently making a AAA fantasy MMO right now, my apologies if I’m offending you. Perhaps your game will be the one that gives that innovative twist on the MMO platform, pulls the rug out from under WoW, and ushers in a new era of multi-mmo supremacy.
Were I a betting man, though, I’d pass on that wager. World of Warcraft isn’t a game anymore. It’s a hobby, it’s a genre unto itself, it’s a culture … it’s an institution. And (at least in the short term) the house always wins.
19 comments19 Comments so far
Fantasy MMOs were already solved by EverQuest before World of Warcraft solved them better.
That said, I believe WAR is in a good position to grow based on the team’s extraordinary skill, dedication, and the very strong IP the game is rooted into.
I see this all the time in practically every blog. I don’t get the blatant Mythic fanboism. They put out ONE GAME that was apparently pretty good seven years ago then according to practically every player I’ve read, promptly screwed it up. With WAR they decided to cut to the chase and released a screwed up game and are now trying to fix it. Or at least make it “less rubbish” was the last quote I think I heard from them.
Richard Garriott had to crank out how many Ultimas to earn his Game God status? I’ll give him the Tabula Rasa screwup. Name a single actor who hasn’t been in a bad movie. But they’re respected and awarded because they put in good performances in many good films. How many good games did Blizzard put out to earn their reputation before WoW ever hit the shelves?
Why does Mythic get the Express Pass to Godhood for a single game, which they botched in the end?
DAoC was a bit more than just “pretty good”. ToA was indeed a mistake, but how many studios own up to them and move on?
I think most people who played enough WAR, and like some form of PvP, can recognize that it has a solid base to grow from, with some changes to the top levels to make everything work. That’s far more reasonable than taking a completely broken model and trying to cram PvP into it.
And in the MMO space, how many studies can say they have launched two successful titles?
I think there are two separate interpretations of what MZ was getting at.
One is the idea that WOW established the formula for making a successful fantasy MMORPG – 1 part PVE, 1 part instances, 1 part raiding, sprinkle of PVP, bake for 3 years in a oven fueled with 20-50 million dollars and let stand for 30 min. I don’t think this is what MZ is getting at.
We can all agree that WOW is the evolution of EQ and that EQ is the evolution of MUD’s and that MUD’s and everything that came after are just the (piss poor) attempts at making D&D without the imagination and PnP parts. The formula was established when EQ came out on top over UO and AC and people figured out this was the best type of system for this game, or at least the one people preferred.
I think what MZ is getting at is market saturation and a truly dominant market leader. The idea that trying to out WOW WOW is like trying to out Microsoft Microsoft – go be Apple instead.
And MZ, don’t apologize to people making a AAA fantasy MMORPG right now for what you are saying. These folks need to hear this type of thing before they burn all that VC money at the alter of the MMORPG gods.
While the 38 Studios project might be great history and recent trends can be read to say that it will not be. It is a start up with a pool of industry veterans and people from outside the industry making a(nother) fantasy MMORPG. When we have seen former Blizzard developer put out less than stellar (to be polite) games why should people expect great things from this team. We have seen the sequel to EQ founder. We have seen the two biggest fantasy licenses (D&D and LotR) fail to meet expectations and I hate to even mention Vanguard. The odds are not in their favor.
Michael, I see where you’re going with this and I think you’re right. AAA Fantasy MMOs are a King-of-the-Hill proposition. WoW took EQ’s throne and someone will come along and take WoW’s. Everyone else is an also ran. I wouldn’t want to bankroll one on the off chance my game would be the one to do it. That said, a decent alternative can also be successful based on more realistic expectations.
Scott hit the nail on the head.
I’d also like to add that maybe if these studios actually made some games before they jumped into the mmo space that they would be able to innovate and not just copy/pasta. You know, build a foundation before making that game you will have to put all your resources into until you shut the servers down.
From the Mythic Entertainment wiki page: <>
I actually played Silent Death Online, Magestorm, and Darkness Falls and they were all great games. Perhaps not MMOs in the modern sense, but then again they were also released before UO created the genre as such.
Scott, a little research before posting goes a long way toward making one not appear ignorant.
I’m not sure I agree with this whole “fantasy MMO is a solved problem” deal. No one is gonna beat WoW at being WoW, and I think that’s why so many of these games have come up as also-rans. They suck as WoW clones. But I still think *hold your flames* Brad McQuaid was right. There is still a market out there for that “core gamer”, and no one has made that game yet. It’s not a million players, but it’s a sizeable market. Just because VG failed to deliver at it’s launch (It’s MUCH improved now, btw) doesnt mean the people who generated all that hype dont still exist. Vanguard was a horrible implementation of a product very different from WoW, and THAT should have been the true successor to EQ. It’s been said before, cause I think it’s true…WoW is the fast food fare of MMOs, EQ is that decent place where the food was pretty good for the price, but the atmosphere sucked. Vanguard promised me a gourmet experience, but no one has made THAT game yet. Until they do, I just can’t give up hope, there’s gotta be more. Oh, and in that metaphor, Conan is TGIFriday’s, WAR is PF Chang’s (perfectly fine if thats what you’re in the mood for), and LOTRO is the Cheesecake Factory. And I can’t play WoW because eating there makes my back hurt… :)
And funny you mention WoW as a hobby, because I’m looking for that MMO hobby, not a game. The trouble with a lot of these MMOs coming out, they are more “game” than “hobby”, if that makes sense. I think there’s a market for a AAA fantasy MMO with the promise of Vanguard, that has EQ without the tediousness and Eve without the steroid spreadsheet, and fine… the accessibility and polish of WoW.
@ Nat:
LOTRO failed to meet expectations? Shwe? It has a very very healthy sub base (Last I checked it was 350k subs before Moria), and is one of the “gold standards” for polish in MMO’s today. Turbine puts out an absolute buttload of content, as they’re releasing books all the time, and the community is one of the nicest I’ve come across in a MMO. (I know that’s subjective, but to have 350k subs and a very small asshat population is an unfortunate rarity)
LOTRO was #2 for US-based games (Yes I know FFXI had more subs, but SOE’s not what I call a US-based company) before WAR came in. I think LOTRO and WAR will flip-flop somewhat for the #2 spot… And WAR’s #’s may steadily increase if the expansion brings that “somethin somethin” that so many people say WAR is lacking right now. Turbine has more than made back their initial investment, and will continue to be an excellent revenue stream for Turbine; which is what any business venture can hope for.
Of course there is a ‘core gamer’ group out there but that’s not the point. This is not a question of can small niche games cattier to a focused and specific type of gamer and be successful. We all know that can work. To use your restaurant/food analogy – Darkfall will be the questionable biker bar with great bar food but unless you know the regulars you might not want to stop, EVE is the Trendy European place that you think might be ran by the Russian Mob and is the favorite hang out of more shady characters than you would want to know.
We are talking about AAA titles and they are NOT going after target groups of gamers, they are going after the mass market. You don’t spend the money on a AAA title to compete with EVE, you spend it to compete with WOW. To use your restaurant/food analogy again – you don’t spend 50 million dollars to open a small family run Italian restaurant and if you do you shouldn’t bitch when you don’t post earnings like McDonalds.
A lot of people compare WOW to McDonalds and I don’t think this is a good comparison. WOW is more like Starbucks. Free Realms will be more like McDonalds – hell it wants to be McDonalds more than anything.
Timing is critical to business and from 2005 to some point in the future, AAA fantasy MMORPG’s are a “solved problem”. Blizzard is like Disney of old, they had a magic that others couldn’t compete with.
@ Adam
You honestly think that 350k subs for an MMORPG based on the grandfather of all modern fantasy is a success? That shares the same license as a movie trilogy that made close to 3 billion dollars worldwide? That is based on a book that has been translated into almost every language on the planet and has more copies in print than nearly any book?
Honestly, LotRO has to be a disappointment to everyone involved. I don’t have any insider knowledge but I would bet money that if we saw what the sales and subscriber projections were before launch we would be astounded by how far off they were.
Hell Turbine recently were saying how they still left it would rise to the level of WOW in 2009 with the Hobbit movie coming out and all the improvements they are making. That right there tells us they had bigger expectations for this game.
LotRO I’m sure makes money and is a good game (was an early beta tester on it) and seems to be the darling of the blogosphere right now but that does not change the fact that it is not as successful as those who bankrolled it expected.
If by “solved problem” you mean the art of taking existing solutions and mechanics that is prevalent in many EQ-derivative games, then I could agree. Blizzard does a good job of refining a lot of things others have pioneered before.
But just because that is a good way to solve “the problem” it does not mean it is the only solution and the only solution that may appeal to a large market segment.
Why bring up LOTRO, Warhammer Online and Age of Conan and not Guild Wars? At least the latter is a title that has sold in millions, which cannot be claimed by the other Western fantasy titles besides WoW.
Ahh, thanks Nat. Guess I better understand the emphasis on AAA in “AAA fantasy MMO”. I guess I was focusing my comment on the statement in the 2008 wrapup MZ had, “The inn is full, there are no seats left at the table, the plane door is closing… whatever metaphor you want to use, AAA fantasy games are a niche in the games industry that is now nearly impossible to enter.” MZ then presents WAR and Conan (both PvP centric games that had problems with their PvP) and LOTRO and EQ2. LOTRO seems to be carving out it’s own niche and doing well, but I’ve seen EQ2 over the years try to move towards the WoW market and fail to compete. It’s got it’s own core of players but I don’t imagine it growing much more than what it has now. My point was simply that the “core gamer” game, the “what Vanguard promised but failed miserably to deliver”, is a niche big enough to still enter the AAA fantasy MMO space and be very successful.
[...] Fantasy AAA-MMORPG-Genre ist doch gelöst. Oder doch [...]
I think ‘optimized’ is more fitting than ’solved’, but the gist is the same: until technological advances and demographic shifts render World of Warcraft a passe product, all other fantasy MMOs need not apply if the goal is anything more than simply turning a profit.
If there’s anything that history has taught us it is that:
(1) you never invade Russia during winter; and
(2) you never take a run at World of Warcraft.
@ Nat:
You cannot compare a movie to a MMO. Doesn’t work. It’s an applies to oranges comparison. The LOTR franchise did make 3 billion worldwide, but for a good reason: Movies are only US $5-10 worldwide for a ticket, depending on currency. That’s a far cry different from dropping $50.00 US to get the box and then potentially another $14.99/mo, along with having the machine to run it.
That’s like saying “The WoW movie will be guaranteed to make umpteen billion dollars because there are 11+ million people who play WoW”… One doesn’t necessarily involve the other. I’m sure there are plenty of people who will avoid the WoW movie even if they are current WoW players… maybe they’ll be too busy with raids to take time out for a movie. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if the WoW movie tanked, simply because there aren’t ENOUGH WoW fans out there to cover the cost.
Assume for example it costs them $100 million to make the WoW movie. (quite possible given animation costs, etc etc). If you got all 11 million people to shell out 8 bucks to see it once, that’s $88 million. Your movie that is based on the most successful MMO in history has lost $12 million. I understand that people will see it multiple times… but in the end it boils down to the same thing… you can’t assume A + B = C, when you’re crossing media types (film to online entertainment).
That being said… if everyone out there who loved Tolkien did go and play LOTRO, it would DESTROY WoW as the top MMO.
In the end though… comparing your game to WoW is like comparing a Pinto to a Mustang GT 500…. Pointless.
Yes, everyone does it because it’s the biggest, but there really is no point; it’s an ineffective benchmark, unless you’re a sadist who enjoys saying “god, our numbers SUCK compared to WoW!”.
I can say with pretty good certainty that Turbine has paid off their initial investment/VC funds used to develop LOTRO, and are probably riding on pure profit at this point. Does any company want more subscribers? of course. Does any company want to be more profitable? of course. Unfortuately for Turbine, the vast majority of LOTRO players are “older”, more seasoned MMO players who want less twitch and a good paced, but not hyper-fast MMO. That tends to turn off younger MMO players, who are so used to everything being done in 5 nanoseconds that WoW is just a more “natural” speed for them. Usually the same argument is used for FPS games as well… they tend to favor younger players for the instant gratification.
@Adam
While your assessment of games to movies is accurate, movies to games have always sold extremely well. For example, according to vgchartz the PS2 Two Towers game sold 4.28 million units world wide.
@Adam
I’m not trying to make direct comparisons between games, books and movies only that based on these factors it is fair to assume that Turbine had high expectations for their game.
You come at me with the idea that LotRO did meet expectations in your fist comment addressed to me and I attempted to point out that it didn’t meet expectations based on the license.
The issues you raise of quality, content, being #2, etc are all irrelevant to this discussion.
Your car example (GT 500 – aaaahhhh, nice) is also missing the point. LotRO didn’t set out to build a Pinto (if they did then they would not be relevant to this discussion), they set out to build a car to take on the GT500 and failed. Just like EQ2 did, just like WAR did, just like AoC did, hell just like Vanguard did. All of these were big budget AAA titles.
I’m not sure what the issue is in many of these comments (not just yours) that don’t seem to get what MZ was saying (MZ – feel free to jump in here if I’m way off) that the AAA fantasy MMORPG space is covered (for now), stop making them for a while because WOW seems to be all people (based on player numbers and the disappointments of other attempts) need/want in that space (for now).
For the record, LotRO is a fine game, I’m not bashing it.
[...] Michael@MMO Nation thinks that AAA fantasy MMO’s are a solved problem. Time for developers (who aren’t Blizzard) to move [...]