That said, it’s questionable how much overlap the JGE and Champs audiences will have. And, as Massively points out, Eurogamer’s announcement of Champions’ release date hasn’t been confirmed by Cryptic yet.

Just in case you need some background:

Free Realms: SOE’s first free-to-play title, a whimsical fantasy game aimed at tweens and families.
Champions Online: Cryptic’s second go at a superhero MMO, based on the tabletop RPG license. Will build on City of Heroes innovations and feature more physicality in the world.
Jumpgate Evolution: Netdevil’s long-in-development space shooter, a persistent online successor to games like Wing Commander.
Aion: A fantasy game from NCsoft featuring a unique background story and playable characters with the ability to fly.

I’d say it’s a busy year for MMOs, but the genre’s become something altogether different in the last few years. I expect most years we’re going to be looking at a number of big-picture releases, along with numerous smaller entries into the field. These AAA titles are going to be joined in 2009 by numerous free-to-play games and indie offerings; already this year we’re seeing the relaunch of Three Rings’ Bang! Howdy.

It’s awesome, and highly encouraging, to see the genre explode like this. I can’t wait to see what the industry looks like at the end of the year (thought I’m pumped that Free Realms is going live so soon!)

“Making a AAA fantasy game is a solved problem” is something I said in my 2008 MMO wrapup on Gamasutra, and it’s something I’ve said frequently in the past. And I mean it. AAA fantasy games are ‘solved’, the formulae is complete, development and iteration on that particular niche of the niche market can stop now.

I never said anything about making one being easy.

In fact, I’d probably be one of the last guys on the face of the planet to tell you anything associated with making an MMO is easy. I’ve never helped make one, I’m not a designer, but I definitely have had a lot of opportunities to see how challenging, strenuous, and sometimes soul-crushing it is to hew one of these beasts from the raw energies of human creativity.

When I said AAA fantasy games are a ‘solved’ problem, I mean purely from the design point of view. World of Warcraft is a niche fantasy title with simply enormous appeal. The mix of PvE, PvP, dungeons, instances, etc. etc is … if not perfect, then good enough for government work. At this particular place and time, I simply don’t see the market need for another huge-budgeted fantasy MMO. That niche is ‘filled’, and any new products trying to break into that niche will have an almost-impossible obstacle to overcome.

The problem with my outlook here, which you’ve probably already spotted, is that timeframes when you’re talking MMOs is always problematic. When the average MMO can take 3+ years to make, you’ve always got to be looking out ahead of where the market is right now. The games in development right now were probably kicked off after about two years of WoW; think about the huge difference in World of Warcraft’s design between 2006 and 2009. That’s a lot of supposition to make. And some suppositions from that timeframe haven’t paid off.

Warhammer and Conan were both made looking “beyond WoW”, with the hope and assumption that World of Warcraft players would want something kind of like what they’d already played, “but different”. Despite what their PR may have been, both of those titles were direct runs at WoW’s niche, and they both failed to achieve their goals as set out by the developers.

That said, I believe WAR is in a good position to grow based on the team’s extraordinary skill, dedication, and the very strong IP the game is rooted into. I worry about Conan. A lot.

All of this is the basis for my statement that AAA Fantasy games are ‘solved’, and simply reinforces my opinion that MMO developers should be seeking out a new niche in the market. Superhero MMOs are already on the move, with three different games vying for the position as pre-eminent title. That level of competition (something fantasy MMOs have had all along) is something I think will be extremely healthy for that genre.

Sci-fi has suffered mightily since the genre blossomed, but we’re now seeing a bunch of titles on the horizon that look like they’ll finally give that respectable storytelling milieu its due. The Old Republic is the obvious one, of course, but everything from Jumpgate Evolution to Star Trek Online has a chance to offer up that ‘perfect fit’. There are quite a few ‘real world’ MMOs in the works as well, and the free-to-play space is carving out niches AAA players didn’t even think about a few years back. A penguin MMO, a cartoon MMO, puzzle MMOs … it’s a cornucopia of goodness.

This, all this stuff above, is healthy. What SOE is doing (Free Realms, Agency, DCUO), what Cryptic is doing (Champions, Star Trek), is healthy. Even NCsoft (bless em’) made Tabula Rasa with the expectation that moving away from AAA fantasy was the right thing to do.

If you’re currently making a AAA fantasy MMO right now, my apologies if I’m offending you. Perhaps your game will be the one that gives that innovative twist on the MMO platform, pulls the rug out from under WoW, and ushers in a new era of multi-mmo supremacy.

Were I a betting man, though, I’d pass on that wager. World of Warcraft isn’t a game anymore. It’s a hobby, it’s a genre unto itself, it’s a culture … it’s an institution. And (at least in the short term) the house always wins.