“Making a AAA fantasy game is a solved problem” is something I said in my 2008 MMO wrapup on Gamasutra, and it’s something I’ve said frequently in the past. And I mean it. AAA fantasy games are ‘solved’, the formulae is complete, development and iteration on that particular niche of the niche market can stop now.

I never said anything about making one being easy.

In fact, I’d probably be one of the last guys on the face of the planet to tell you anything associated with making an MMO is easy. I’ve never helped make one, I’m not a designer, but I definitely have had a lot of opportunities to see how challenging, strenuous, and sometimes soul-crushing it is to hew one of these beasts from the raw energies of human creativity.

When I said AAA fantasy games are a ‘solved’ problem, I mean purely from the design point of view. World of Warcraft is a niche fantasy title with simply enormous appeal. The mix of PvE, PvP, dungeons, instances, etc. etc is … if not perfect, then good enough for government work. At this particular place and time, I simply don’t see the market need for another huge-budgeted fantasy MMO. That niche is ‘filled’, and any new products trying to break into that niche will have an almost-impossible obstacle to overcome.

The problem with my outlook here, which you’ve probably already spotted, is that timeframes when you’re talking MMOs is always problematic. When the average MMO can take 3+ years to make, you’ve always got to be looking out ahead of where the market is right now. The games in development right now were probably kicked off after about two years of WoW; think about the huge difference in World of Warcraft’s design between 2006 and 2009. That’s a lot of supposition to make. And some suppositions from that timeframe haven’t paid off.

Warhammer and Conan were both made looking “beyond WoW”, with the hope and assumption that World of Warcraft players would want something kind of like what they’d already played, “but different”. Despite what their PR may have been, both of those titles were direct runs at WoW’s niche, and they both failed to achieve their goals as set out by the developers.

That said, I believe WAR is in a good position to grow based on the team’s extraordinary skill, dedication, and the very strong IP the game is rooted into. I worry about Conan. A lot.

All of this is the basis for my statement that AAA Fantasy games are ‘solved’, and simply reinforces my opinion that MMO developers should be seeking out a new niche in the market. Superhero MMOs are already on the move, with three different games vying for the position as pre-eminent title. That level of competition (something fantasy MMOs have had all along) is something I think will be extremely healthy for that genre.

Sci-fi has suffered mightily since the genre blossomed, but we’re now seeing a bunch of titles on the horizon that look like they’ll finally give that respectable storytelling milieu its due. The Old Republic is the obvious one, of course, but everything from Jumpgate Evolution to Star Trek Online has a chance to offer up that ‘perfect fit’. There are quite a few ‘real world’ MMOs in the works as well, and the free-to-play space is carving out niches AAA players didn’t even think about a few years back. A penguin MMO, a cartoon MMO, puzzle MMOs … it’s a cornucopia of goodness.

This, all this stuff above, is healthy. What SOE is doing (Free Realms, Agency, DCUO), what Cryptic is doing (Champions, Star Trek), is healthy. Even NCsoft (bless em’) made Tabula Rasa with the expectation that moving away from AAA fantasy was the right thing to do.

If you’re currently making a AAA fantasy MMO right now, my apologies if I’m offending you. Perhaps your game will be the one that gives that innovative twist on the MMO platform, pulls the rug out from under WoW, and ushers in a new era of multi-mmo supremacy.

Were I a betting man, though, I’d pass on that wager. World of Warcraft isn’t a game anymore. It’s a hobby, it’s a genre unto itself, it’s a culture … it’s an institution. And (at least in the short term) the house always wins.

Wrath of the Lich King won’t come out in 2008.

So. Not a good start here. Fail. But I will point out that I wasn’t alone in thinking this would be the case. Plus, I’m really glad it did come out. Good stuff, and nice job Blizz.

The concept of RMT and microtransactions will continue to gain acceptance with North American gamers. This will be reflected commercially by further successes for MapleStory and Nexon’s other games in the US.

Big pass. Nexon was big business this year, and MT made big inroads with a bunch of different games already out.

Other companies will begin to consider alternatives to the flat subscription fee, even if outright RMT/microtransactions aren’t yet on the table. At least one newly announced game this year will feature a non-subscription schema.

I’m going to say this is like a double-pass. If that’s possible. SOE’s Station Cash service is a big ‘alternative to the fat subscription fee’, as is NCsoft’s adoption of its own cash system and City of Heroes Boosters. SWTOR’s non-subscription schema definitely counts for that last point.

The Agency is going to go over like gangbusters … FreeRealms, on the other hand, is going to have a rough go of it.

I’m going to call this a fail. Obviously Agency didn’t come out this year, and Free Realms looks better and better every time I see it. Just the same, I think SOE still has its work cut out for it making gamers and non-gamers understand what these titles are ‘about’.

Warhammer is also going to be a big hit, though it perhaps won’t be everything that EA is hoping for … Conan will be a much less resounding success. It’s not going to fail, but Funcom is going to end 2008 more than a little bit frustrated.

I’m going to call this a pass. Obviously my hopes for Warhammer haven’t gone quite as far as I would have liked, but I think I was pretty close there. And my sense that Conan wouldn’t do as well as Warhammer has, I think, borne out.

The CCP/White Wolf game is going to be big news this year.

Aherm. Fail. That said, the more I think about the possibilities of CCP’s experience with a one-world/one-server game applied to a non-space game the more excited I get. I’d really like to see what a game with avatars in a one-server space would look like.

One of the newbie studios (Carbine, Red 5) is going to announce a project that will really excite and surprise Massive fans. 38 Studios will announce what they’re doing, and it won’t surprise anyone … but it will be somewhat interesting.

Fail. But, again, we have big and tantalizing hints about what’s coming down the pipe from these companies. Big things on the horizon.

There’s going to be yet another major AAA title whose release date is pushed back to late in the year. One of the big games that we think is going to come out in 2008, won’t.

WAR was slated for early 08 and got pushed back, so ding there. There were a number of games loosely slated for 08 that have slid to 09, so I’m going to call this a total success.

At some point, Vanguard players are going to get tired of waiting around for ‘the good’ to show up in their game. Expect to see some of Vanguard’s best features showing up in EverQuest 2.

I’m going to give myself a half-point for this. I don’t think there’s been a mass exodus from Vanguard or anything, but I’m told by Karen that my point about features migrating to EQ2 was pretty spot on.

We’re going to see another live game close up shop this year, and an in-development title will slip into the unseen depths as well.

Well. Shit. Right on both. TR is closing up, Hellgate slid beneath the waves, and Mythos (among others) went the way of the dodo. Pass.

Another MMO dev or publisher will join Blizzard and SOE in making an official podcast.

Pass. NCsoft has one now too.

Tabula Rasa is going to maintain a steady playerbase throughout the year as folks enjoy the new and exciting flavour. Turbine will continue to not report LOTRO’s subscription numbers, for a reason.

Epic fail Zenke. I especially want to upbraid myself for that LotRO crack, because I’m now officially a Middle-earth fanboy.

BioWare will announce what they’re making in Austin.

Yayyyy! Pass! And finally! Let’s all sing The Old Republic song now!

Right: 6.5

Wrong: 5.5

Wow, I managed to get the exact same ratio this year as last year. Nice job me. That must mean that tomorrow is my day for calling next year’s shots. I think I’m going to do a bit more going out on a limb . Maybe.

Last two days alone:

• SOE Launches Proper RMT services for EQ/EQII
• Warhammer adds two of its missing classes
• Infogrames/Atari purchases Cryptic Studios
• Age of Conan server merges delayed
• Mythic won’t skimp on WAR Updates for Expansion

Let me know if you want one in the comments, or shoot me an email. I think I have about five, so there are plenty to go around.

Update: I’m all out. Thanks for taking them off my hands, folks!

Then I read this little gem. By the way, I’d like to note that I’m linking to TTH here instead of the forums proper because I still can’t see them without logging in. Despite Funcom saying this would no longer be a problem. But whatevs.

You may have read on Massively previously that male and female avatars have different damage outputs because of problems with their animation cycles. They said they’d get back to the playerbase (of which I’m still a part) as soon as they knew something. Well, now they know something:

I know that many of you will probably be disappointed to hear that it might take us as much as another three to four weeks to solve this issue, for which I can only apologize, but we want to make sure that we devote the amount of time that an issue of this magnitude and importance deserves rather than rush out a “quick fix” that might not work as well.

• This is utter crap. I’m sure there is a design reason for basing damage output on the length of an attack’s animation (and I’d love to hear it, actually), but putting on my player hat: I don’t freaking care. You’ve just told a large portion of the playerbase that their game experience has been harder than was originally intended all along. You’ve told a large part of the playerbase that their male counterparts are better at their classes, generally. This cuts to the very heart of the average MMO player’s reason for playing an MMO in the first place. “If only I’d picked a guy, I’d be a better guildmember,” is the implicit thought in every player’s head.
• Maybe, and I’m just saying here, if this game wasn’t built on an IP that includes the subjucation and objectification of half the human race … this might not seem quite as bad as it seems.
• Damnit, two out of three of my characters are suffering from this bug!

Why can’t they bring back the bug that made female breasts smaller? That one I liked. Made my avatar look a bit more, you know, human.

That said, they are trying to move to this:

Anyone get the feeling Funcom took five years to develop the first 20 levels of a game?

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Music:
Selections from the Age of Conan Soundtrack. Used without permission.