It’s been an amazing year in MMOGs. I think 2008 is going to be just as big a deal, though … and in some ways maybe even bigger. As I did last year (relatively well, I might add) I’m going to try to call some shots. Again, I’m just a guy and this is all in good fun. But I’ll keep myself honest: we’ll see how I did this time next year.

So then:

1. Is It Cold In Here or Is It Just Me? - Wrath of the Lich King won’t come out in 2008. We’ll have a firm release date (of early 2009) for the expansion by late summer, and there are as-yet-unannounced features slated for the content update. Blizzard has Hydralisks to fry this year.
2. Nickel and Dime - The concept of RMT and microtransactions will continue to gain acceptance with North American gamers. This will be reflected commercially by further successes for MapleStory and Nexon’s other games in the US. Other companies will begin to consider alternatives to the flat subscription fee, even if outright RMT/microtransactions aren’t yet on the table. At least one newly announced game this year will feature a non-subscription schema.
3. Call Me Agent Smith - The Agency is going to go over like gangbusters. A flat box fee with only microtransactions for further goodies is going to make a big impression … if it can make it out this year. Sometime mid-to-late summer would be perfect. This could even be one of the killer apps for the PS3 this year. Which is good, because it needs it. FreeRealms, on the other hand, is going to have a rough go of it. Without clear player understanding of what exactly this humor/fantasy MMOG thingie is, it’s going to take some time for it to take off.
4. WAAAAUGH For the Win - Warhammer is also going to be a big hit … though it perhaps won’t be everything that EA is hoping for. Long-term MMOG fans are going to fall in love all over again just the same. By the end of the year the house that Jacobs built is going to be very happy for all the extra hard work they put in. Conan will be a much less resounding success. It’s not going to fail, but Funcom is going to end 2008 more than a little bit frustrated.
5. Sunglasses At Night - The CCP/White Wolf game is going to be big news this year, as they announce the scope of the world. It’s not going to be everything that World of Darkness fans would have hoped for, but there will still be a lot of happy gothsicles.
6. Out of Left Field - One of the newbie studios (Carbine, Red 5) is going to announce a project that will really excite and surprise Massive fans. 38 Studios will announce what they’re doing, and it won’t surprise anyone … but it will be somewhat interesting.
7. Pushback - There’s going to be yet another major AAA title whose release date is pushed back to late in the year. One of the big games that we think is going to come out in 2008, won’t.
8. The Age Gets Darker - WAR’s release will be a very dark day for the already dimly-lit Ages of Camelot. Their emulation of Mythic’s older game’s defining feature, coupled with a better PvE experience in essentially every way, will see a lot of players heading for the hills.
9. The Legacy of McQuaid - At some point, Vanguard players are going to get tired of waiting around for ‘the good’ to show up in their game. Expect to see some of Vanguard’s best features showing up in EverQuest 2.
10. With the Brim Pulled Way Down Low - We’re going to see another live game close up shop this year, and an in-development title will slip into the unseen depths as well.
11. Way To Cast - Another MMO dev or publisher will join Blizzard and SOE in making an official podcast.
12. Coming of Age - Tabula Rasa is going to maintain a steady playerbase throughout the year as folks enjoy the new and exciting flavour. Turbine will continue to not report LOTRO’s subscription numbers, for a reason.
13. Okay For Serious This Time - BioWare will announce what they’re making in Austin. For reals, guys. C’mon! :)

2008’s Winners: Warhammer Online, The Agency, MapleStory, New Studios

2008’s Losers: Dark Age of Camelot, Vanguard, Age of Conan

Feelings in the blogosphere (and indeed in online gaming generally) towards Sony Online Entertainment are decidedly mixed. While they’ve made some amazing strides with EverQuest 2 and other titles under their umbrella, some folks are still left with a sour taste in their mouth over past stumbles. Whether griping over the Star Wars Galaxies NGE or complaints going all the way back to the Verant days, people love to grind their axes on Sony’s mega-subsidiary.

So I’ve been kind of surprised that more of a big deal hasn’t been made of the talent drain the company has been undergoing for the past year or so. From high profile folks like Moorgard, Blackguard, and now Scott Hartsman to lower-level community folks, programmers, designers, and artists, there seems to be a general current of talented people flowing away from the monolith.

So why are people leaving the company? What’s prompting this trend? Is it very widespread and (more importantly for the players) what does it mean for their games? And, of course, you can’t help but wonder what this means for the industry in general. Or, at least, I can’t.
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Christmas is mostly about family and giving and all that stuff, but when it comes down to it we all have our eyes open for loot. It’s the time of year when we hope that the wrapped presents under the tree are exactly what we want. When miracles might just come true. Last year I sat down and worked out my list for Santa, and I think it would be a shame if I didn’t do the same this year. Here’s what I want for my 2008 year in MMOGs:

• Something on the Firefly MMOG … anything!
• To find out what some of those new MMOG startups are doing, and (of course) more Metaplace news.
• A late-in-the-year launch of Lich King. I’ve still got lots of stuff to do before then.
• The dedication to keep playing EQ2 until my fellow adventurers tire of Norrath. I’d really like to get to the Kunark content at some point, too.
• A spectacular launch for Warhammer Online and a Beta invite early in the new year. (Please, Mythic? I promise to play nice.)
• Further success for my newest gig: Massively!
• A successful (first annual) Worlds in Motion Summit.
• Even *more* acceptance of MMOGs by mainstream society. I’ve gotten my Toyota commercial and Mr. T’s night elf mohawk already. Top that.
• I’m still waiting for the second episode of Illegal Danish, and now I’m waiting on MMOvie also. I could use some more of Snacky’s Journal, too.
• Announcements for the new games from Square/Enix and Blizzard … and for the love of all that is holy, just cop to KOTORO, BioWare!
• A sense of what Guild Wars 2 will bring us; 2007 made me a huge fan of Arena.net’s original.
• The dedication to keep the RSS feed smoking here on MMOG Nation.

Here’s the deal: quests and quest journals are the reason I like Massively multiplayer games now. I played EQ and SWG and etc, etc, before World of Warcraft, just like all the other jaded MMOG hags. I thrilled to the social gaming, the hackery and the slashery, the obtaining of loot, the joy of a new expansion, and all the other things that make Massive games great. But I didn’t realize how much I could love Massive games until I played World of Warcraft and grabbed my first proper quest. It was in Dun Morogh, of course, and I remember it clearly: Dwarven Outfitters, given out by Sten Stoutarm. Here’s the quest text:

“What do we have here? You look as though you might need something to keep your hands warm, hm? I’ll tell you what would help: a pair of nice, warm gloves. And, being the kind soul that I am, I’d be more than happy to provide you with a suitable pair. I’ve one condition, however. I need you to go get me some wolf meat. Nice arrangement, hm? You bring me some wolf meat, and I’ll make sure you don’t lose any digits to frostbite. Well, what do you say?”

Yeah, it’s a ‘whack the foozle’ quest, with an item requirement no less. Thankfully, the drop ratio for that wolf meat is near 100%, so eight wolves later and you’ve a.) finished your first quest and b.) dinged level 2. It’s cheesy, and it’s lame, and WoW doesn’t offer you a ‘completed quest’ journal so you’ll quickly forget about it.

For me, though, ‘Dwarven Outfitters’ was my first step into a wider world. Sten’s offer was novel, because it didn’t require me to guess what he wanted. It didn’t require me to guess what he’d give me. If I needed a reminder of what I was supposed to do, it was instantly checkable. And, most importantly, it gave me a clearly understandable goal rooted in a story.

That story part is enormously important for me. I’ve been doing a lot of thinking recently about what’s a critical element for me in a game, and that story bit is tantamount. Bioshock and Mass Effect are two of my most anticipated games of the year not because of game mechanics (though I like what I’ve heard) or graphics (thought I like what I see). I ‘m looking forward to those games because of their different and engaging stories. Story makes the difference for me between meaningless exercise and fun.

Thousands and thousands of quest like this later, I’ll admit that sometimes I read just long enough to determine “you want me to kill how many?” That said, there is a story here. A cold newbie adventurer wanders up to this dwarf, and the guy offers this bum a chance to kit himself out with new gear. It’s short, it’s to the point, and it works. The very next quest you get, though it’s just another whack the foozle quest, begins to set up the Dwarf v. Trogg conflict that is pervasive in the Dwarven zones for the rest of the game.

From the get-go, WoW roots you in the story of the gameworld with a simple quest structure that grabs the player. Does this ’suck’? Thousands of kill ten rats later, I can understand why a player would be bored by such a thing. That said, I’d much much much rather have nice simple quests like this in the game than not. Not every quest can be gryphon bombardments.

Quest designers are already coming up with better alternatives. DDO’s dungeon-based experience system is an improvement. WAR is working on several improvements to multiple kinds of quests. PotBS will have a bunch of quest variants, from the sounds of things quests that EVE players will be a bit familiar with. One can only assume that the folks at places like 38 Studios, Heatwave, Colony, and Bioware are working to bring together all-new ways of having fun and telling story to players in a Massive setting.

Fundamentally, though, I shiver at the blanket suggestion that ‘quests suck’. It all comes back to ‘Dwarven Outfitters’ for me; I don’t want to go back to my days before I met Sten Stoutarm, and you can’t make me.

The Escapist has up an interview between Russ Pitts and Curt Schilling, talking about Green Monster’s plans, and why the man started the company in the first place. The answer, according to him, is neither insanity nor a mid-life crisis.

“Curt Schilling: I had the idea about a decade ago. Probably longer than that, since I’ve been a gamer my whole life. The genesis of it was maybe 10 years ago but I really started to act on it probably seven or eight years ago, when I started my relationship with the people at Sony. I got into looking inside the industry and started to act on it a few years back and really started to move on it last year … This is something I will focus on explicitly and completely when I’m retired. Outside of working out for this season and my family right now, it’s taking up every minute of my day.”