“Making a AAA fantasy game is a solved problem” is something I said in my 2008 MMO wrapup on Gamasutra, and it’s something I’ve said frequently in the past. And I mean it. AAA fantasy games are ‘solved’, the formulae is complete, development and iteration on that particular niche of the niche market can stop now.

I never said anything about making one being easy.

In fact, I’d probably be one of the last guys on the face of the planet to tell you anything associated with making an MMO is easy. I’ve never helped make one, I’m not a designer, but I definitely have had a lot of opportunities to see how challenging, strenuous, and sometimes soul-crushing it is to hew one of these beasts from the raw energies of human creativity.

When I said AAA fantasy games are a ‘solved’ problem, I mean purely from the design point of view. World of Warcraft is a niche fantasy title with simply enormous appeal. The mix of PvE, PvP, dungeons, instances, etc. etc is … if not perfect, then good enough for government work. At this particular place and time, I simply don’t see the market need for another huge-budgeted fantasy MMO. That niche is ‘filled’, and any new products trying to break into that niche will have an almost-impossible obstacle to overcome.

The problem with my outlook here, which you’ve probably already spotted, is that timeframes when you’re talking MMOs is always problematic. When the average MMO can take 3+ years to make, you’ve always got to be looking out ahead of where the market is right now. The games in development right now were probably kicked off after about two years of WoW; think about the huge difference in World of Warcraft’s design between 2006 and 2009. That’s a lot of supposition to make. And some suppositions from that timeframe haven’t paid off.

Warhammer and Conan were both made looking “beyond WoW”, with the hope and assumption that World of Warcraft players would want something kind of like what they’d already played, “but different”. Despite what their PR may have been, both of those titles were direct runs at WoW’s niche, and they both failed to achieve their goals as set out by the developers.

That said, I believe WAR is in a good position to grow based on the team’s extraordinary skill, dedication, and the very strong IP the game is rooted into. I worry about Conan. A lot.

All of this is the basis for my statement that AAA Fantasy games are ‘solved’, and simply reinforces my opinion that MMO developers should be seeking out a new niche in the market. Superhero MMOs are already on the move, with three different games vying for the position as pre-eminent title. That level of competition (something fantasy MMOs have had all along) is something I think will be extremely healthy for that genre.

Sci-fi has suffered mightily since the genre blossomed, but we’re now seeing a bunch of titles on the horizon that look like they’ll finally give that respectable storytelling milieu its due. The Old Republic is the obvious one, of course, but everything from Jumpgate Evolution to Star Trek Online has a chance to offer up that ‘perfect fit’. There are quite a few ‘real world’ MMOs in the works as well, and the free-to-play space is carving out niches AAA players didn’t even think about a few years back. A penguin MMO, a cartoon MMO, puzzle MMOs … it’s a cornucopia of goodness.

This, all this stuff above, is healthy. What SOE is doing (Free Realms, Agency, DCUO), what Cryptic is doing (Champions, Star Trek), is healthy. Even NCsoft (bless em’) made Tabula Rasa with the expectation that moving away from AAA fantasy was the right thing to do.

If you’re currently making a AAA fantasy MMO right now, my apologies if I’m offending you. Perhaps your game will be the one that gives that innovative twist on the MMO platform, pulls the rug out from under WoW, and ushers in a new era of multi-mmo supremacy.

Were I a betting man, though, I’d pass on that wager. World of Warcraft isn’t a game anymore. It’s a hobby, it’s a genre unto itself, it’s a culture … it’s an institution. And (at least in the short term) the house always wins.

Wrath of the Lich King won’t come out in 2008.

So. Not a good start here. Fail. But I will point out that I wasn’t alone in thinking this would be the case. Plus, I’m really glad it did come out. Good stuff, and nice job Blizz.

The concept of RMT and microtransactions will continue to gain acceptance with North American gamers. This will be reflected commercially by further successes for MapleStory and Nexon’s other games in the US.

Big pass. Nexon was big business this year, and MT made big inroads with a bunch of different games already out.

Other companies will begin to consider alternatives to the flat subscription fee, even if outright RMT/microtransactions aren’t yet on the table. At least one newly announced game this year will feature a non-subscription schema.

I’m going to say this is like a double-pass. If that’s possible. SOE’s Station Cash service is a big ‘alternative to the fat subscription fee’, as is NCsoft’s adoption of its own cash system and City of Heroes Boosters. SWTOR’s non-subscription schema definitely counts for that last point.

The Agency is going to go over like gangbusters … FreeRealms, on the other hand, is going to have a rough go of it.

I’m going to call this a fail. Obviously Agency didn’t come out this year, and Free Realms looks better and better every time I see it. Just the same, I think SOE still has its work cut out for it making gamers and non-gamers understand what these titles are ‘about’.

Warhammer is also going to be a big hit, though it perhaps won’t be everything that EA is hoping for … Conan will be a much less resounding success. It’s not going to fail, but Funcom is going to end 2008 more than a little bit frustrated.

I’m going to call this a pass. Obviously my hopes for Warhammer haven’t gone quite as far as I would have liked, but I think I was pretty close there. And my sense that Conan wouldn’t do as well as Warhammer has, I think, borne out.

The CCP/White Wolf game is going to be big news this year.

Aherm. Fail. That said, the more I think about the possibilities of CCP’s experience with a one-world/one-server game applied to a non-space game the more excited I get. I’d really like to see what a game with avatars in a one-server space would look like.

One of the newbie studios (Carbine, Red 5) is going to announce a project that will really excite and surprise Massive fans. 38 Studios will announce what they’re doing, and it won’t surprise anyone … but it will be somewhat interesting.

Fail. But, again, we have big and tantalizing hints about what’s coming down the pipe from these companies. Big things on the horizon.

There’s going to be yet another major AAA title whose release date is pushed back to late in the year. One of the big games that we think is going to come out in 2008, won’t.

WAR was slated for early 08 and got pushed back, so ding there. There were a number of games loosely slated for 08 that have slid to 09, so I’m going to call this a total success.

At some point, Vanguard players are going to get tired of waiting around for ‘the good’ to show up in their game. Expect to see some of Vanguard’s best features showing up in EverQuest 2.

I’m going to give myself a half-point for this. I don’t think there’s been a mass exodus from Vanguard or anything, but I’m told by Karen that my point about features migrating to EQ2 was pretty spot on.

We’re going to see another live game close up shop this year, and an in-development title will slip into the unseen depths as well.

Well. Shit. Right on both. TR is closing up, Hellgate slid beneath the waves, and Mythos (among others) went the way of the dodo. Pass.

Another MMO dev or publisher will join Blizzard and SOE in making an official podcast.

Pass. NCsoft has one now too.

Tabula Rasa is going to maintain a steady playerbase throughout the year as folks enjoy the new and exciting flavour. Turbine will continue to not report LOTRO’s subscription numbers, for a reason.

Epic fail Zenke. I especially want to upbraid myself for that LotRO crack, because I’m now officially a Middle-earth fanboy.

BioWare will announce what they’re making in Austin.

Yayyyy! Pass! And finally! Let’s all sing The Old Republic song now!

Right: 6.5

Wrong: 5.5

Wow, I managed to get the exact same ratio this year as last year. Nice job me. That must mean that tomorrow is my day for calling next year’s shots. I think I’m going to do a bit more going out on a limb . Maybe.

What is obscured, or was for me at least, was the context. The conditions under which they made that decision. The realities of the rest of the world vs. our little bubble of online gaming here in the states. Within that bubble I float in a particularly small subpocket of like-minded, passionate gamers with a love for all things online. The context around me is frustration, annoyance, and generally surly attitudes about what we see as the abuse of a perfectly valid community.

Enter Rossignol. I’m reading through his book, This Gaming Life and loving every minute of it. It’s like he’s writing specifically to me, something I don’t tend to be ballsy enough to think. But his look into the industry I’m adjacent-to-but-not-a-part of is thrilling. More thrilling is his writing about the crafthouse I am a part of, Game Writers Local 304. His views of the medium, its potential, and the potential of writing about the medium are all – frankly – a little overwhelming. Anyway, go read it. Great book.

I bring up the eminent UK writer and his tome because they gave me crystal-clarity understanding of NCsoft’s decision, all thanks to a few throwaway sentences in the book’s second chapter. Entitled ‘A Gamers’ World’, it’s all about his time in South Korea. He wrestles with his time, trying to understand the differences between gaming culture here and the pervasive rule of PC gaming/PC cafes there.

“I took a few minutes to watch a show that pitted young gaming couples (who had met through playing Linage II) against each other in a virtual battle arena. The smiling young Koreans commanded their sword-toting magicians with enviable proficiency … The winning couple were rewarded with a holiday to a very real beach somewhere in Thailand, and the pair cooed with delight as their spoils were revealed.” (”This Gaming Life, pg. 60.)

So take this in: In Korea Lineage II (made by NCsoft) is so popular there is a dating show whose contestants are entirely drawn from the ranks of its playerbase. Millions of people play the game, and it has the cultural cachet to merit a mainstream television show.

Now, turn and regard Tabula Rasa. A sci-fi ’shooter’ with confused controls, a genre people just don’t respond to all that well, millions of dollars required for development, a figurehead that is widely regarded as distant and detached, and an increasingly-small playerbase. I’ve heard numbers like 30,000 player bandied about, though I have no way of knowing what the validity of those figures are.

Both of these games are made by the same company. If in one hand you’re holding a cultural icon with millions of players, and in the other you’re effectively holding a game with negative subscriptions … what would be your reaction?

I’m not saying it was right. I’m not saying I agree. But I think … I think … I understand. And that’s important too, regardless of what side you fall on.

So, my first December 08 post falls on the 6th. So it goes. That said, I want to do a little bit of catching up. Because, like I said, busy week.

• Tabula Rasa’s closure is pretty well BS. Sorry, I know I should be more politik about it, but that’s why this is my personal site and not my responsible-day-job site. I appreciate that they have business needs and all that kinda jazz, but guess what? I’m a player. I don’t have to care about their bottom line. The herculean efforts of the team to put out new patches, introduce new content, and encourage community behaviors at the end of days just proves to me that this is a collection of people which deserves to survive.
• Colin Brennan took them to task opinion-style on Massively for TR’s closure, and we got nothing but hell from it from people on both sides of the fence. I particularly didn’t appreciate this post from Lum; we talked via email and I guess I feel a little better about it. I perpetually live in a state of ‘you can’t please everybody’, but this issue was more like ‘damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
• Good idea: Own up to the fact that one of your core game elements needs some fixing. As I’ve argued here in the past, these games simply cannot be released 100% perfect. If you couch it to the community in the right framework, they’ll be unhappy but understanding. Bad idea: Let your creative director bitch out the guy that made the mistake in front of the entire fucking internet. I’m sorry, I respect Mr. Barnett – as I’ve said here in the past – but come on. I disagree with Lum’s opinion on one point: it was at no point funny. I may not have had any formal management training, but I know one bottom-line concept pretty well already – you don’t make someone into an example. Ever. It’s not funny, it’s not cool, and it inspires people to, um, hate you. Anyone want to take a guess as to how long Colin’s going to stay with Mythic after this?
• In a week with so much bad news, it was great to see Darkfall and Chronicles of Spellborn moving forward after their lengthy development stalls. City of Heroes Issue 13, also? Awesome, completely. They’ve reinstated all the lapsed accounts this weekend if you’re looking for something to do.
• I’ve been struggling with the WoW vs. LotRO issue a lot. My ‘Monday evening’ character has turned into something of a going concern with me. I’m going to talk a lot more about this in the next few days, but … yeah, Turbine has a lot of respect from me.

Limited Edition #7

Hot off the tail of our Bioware interview last time on Limited Edition we are joined by Michael Zenke from Massively, MMOGNation and also part of the VirginWorlds Collective to discuss DC Universe Online. We invited Michael to join us as the content on DCUO from massively has been outstanding and we could think of no-one more qualified to do it justice.

The added bonus that comes with Michael is that he loves comic books. We chat about what we have been playing, reading, cartoons and the end of Tabula Rasa.

It is with regret that we must announce that Tabula Rasa will end live service on February 28, 2009. Before we end the service, we’ll make Tabula Rasa servers free to play starting on January 10, 2009.

We can assure you that through the next couple of months we’ll be doing some really fun things in Tabula Rasa, and we plan to make staying on a little longer worth your while. For more details about what we are doing for Tabula Rasa players, please click here. Stay tuned for more information. We thank you for your loyal support of the game and encourage you to take us up on the benefits we’re offering Tabula Rasa players.

Damn it.