Wrath of the Lich King won’t come out in 2008.

So. Not a good start here. Fail. But I will point out that I wasn’t alone in thinking this would be the case. Plus, I’m really glad it did come out. Good stuff, and nice job Blizz.

The concept of RMT and microtransactions will continue to gain acceptance with North American gamers. This will be reflected commercially by further successes for MapleStory and Nexon’s other games in the US.

Big pass. Nexon was big business this year, and MT made big inroads with a bunch of different games already out.

Other companies will begin to consider alternatives to the flat subscription fee, even if outright RMT/microtransactions aren’t yet on the table. At least one newly announced game this year will feature a non-subscription schema.

I’m going to say this is like a double-pass. If that’s possible. SOE’s Station Cash service is a big ‘alternative to the fat subscription fee’, as is NCsoft’s adoption of its own cash system and City of Heroes Boosters. SWTOR’s non-subscription schema definitely counts for that last point.

The Agency is going to go over like gangbusters … FreeRealms, on the other hand, is going to have a rough go of it.

I’m going to call this a fail. Obviously Agency didn’t come out this year, and Free Realms looks better and better every time I see it. Just the same, I think SOE still has its work cut out for it making gamers and non-gamers understand what these titles are ‘about’.

Warhammer is also going to be a big hit, though it perhaps won’t be everything that EA is hoping for … Conan will be a much less resounding success. It’s not going to fail, but Funcom is going to end 2008 more than a little bit frustrated.

I’m going to call this a pass. Obviously my hopes for Warhammer haven’t gone quite as far as I would have liked, but I think I was pretty close there. And my sense that Conan wouldn’t do as well as Warhammer has, I think, borne out.

The CCP/White Wolf game is going to be big news this year.

Aherm. Fail. That said, the more I think about the possibilities of CCP’s experience with a one-world/one-server game applied to a non-space game the more excited I get. I’d really like to see what a game with avatars in a one-server space would look like.

One of the newbie studios (Carbine, Red 5) is going to announce a project that will really excite and surprise Massive fans. 38 Studios will announce what they’re doing, and it won’t surprise anyone … but it will be somewhat interesting.

Fail. But, again, we have big and tantalizing hints about what’s coming down the pipe from these companies. Big things on the horizon.

There’s going to be yet another major AAA title whose release date is pushed back to late in the year. One of the big games that we think is going to come out in 2008, won’t.

WAR was slated for early 08 and got pushed back, so ding there. There were a number of games loosely slated for 08 that have slid to 09, so I’m going to call this a total success.

At some point, Vanguard players are going to get tired of waiting around for ‘the good’ to show up in their game. Expect to see some of Vanguard’s best features showing up in EverQuest 2.

I’m going to give myself a half-point for this. I don’t think there’s been a mass exodus from Vanguard or anything, but I’m told by Karen that my point about features migrating to EQ2 was pretty spot on.

We’re going to see another live game close up shop this year, and an in-development title will slip into the unseen depths as well.

Well. Shit. Right on both. TR is closing up, Hellgate slid beneath the waves, and Mythos (among others) went the way of the dodo. Pass.

Another MMO dev or publisher will join Blizzard and SOE in making an official podcast.

Pass. NCsoft has one now too.

Tabula Rasa is going to maintain a steady playerbase throughout the year as folks enjoy the new and exciting flavour. Turbine will continue to not report LOTRO’s subscription numbers, for a reason.

Epic fail Zenke. I especially want to upbraid myself for that LotRO crack, because I’m now officially a Middle-earth fanboy.

BioWare will announce what they’re making in Austin.

Yayyyy! Pass! And finally! Let’s all sing The Old Republic song now!

Right: 6.5

Wrong: 5.5

Wow, I managed to get the exact same ratio this year as last year. Nice job me. That must mean that tomorrow is my day for calling next year’s shots. I think I’m going to do a bit more going out on a limb . Maybe.

Here’s what I want for my 2009 year in MMOs:

• Mega-quantities of awesome from SOE. Agency, Free Realms, and DC Universe Online are all very near the top of my awesomedar. I am really looking forward to the Free Realms Beta, and my hope is that Agency will go into Beta at some point near the end of the year. I don’t imagine we’ll be seeing much of DCUO publicly, but at least one more chance to play that kickass demo would be much appreciated.
• An ongoing stream of content from BioWare about The Old Republic. Not only am I personally really thrilled that we’re finally getting something, professionally I can’t get enough of that SWTOR.
• The lads at 38 have told us that we should see real news on Copernicus sometime in early summer. I want their kickoff to be a huge splash, their content to be incredibly well-received, and their design to be absolutely inspired. I’ll be straight: I think they’ve got a long haul ahead of them. The fantasy genre is going to be hell and a half to enter as a direct competitor to WoW. But if they want to give it a try, who am I to stand in their way or do anything but cheerlead from the sidelines?
• After one of my favorite interviews of the year with two gents from Red 5, I have been obsessed about getting more details on their game. I would absolutely love to know what the hell they’re doing down there. More than any other ‘dark’ company right now, Red 5 is making the game that I’m desperate to explore. Here’s hoping they give us a bit more insight on their plans thiscoming year.
• I’m greedy, I know, but I really want a look at Guild Wars 2 as well. It’s been more than a year since Arena.net put out Eye of the North, and GW2 was well along in development back in that point. While I completely understand why it’s not out yet, the tomb-like silence that we’ve seen from the company on the topic of their sequel to their groundbreaking title has been a bit unnerving. I really hope Arena will finally be able to throw back the curtain and give us a look at the goods.
• Tons of success to my fellow MMO bloggers and podcasters, be they industry paragons like Scott or enthusiast juggernauts like Tim (Van Hemlock). While I know I don’t contribute a lot from this domain much any more, I’d like to think that the MMOblogosphere is a pretty darn special place to be hanging your hat. Here’s hoping it continues in 2009.
• Continued good gaming vibes and personal connections between myself and my guilds! A year ago I was a boring-as-hell soloer, and now I have a community in all three of my primary MMOs! I hope that 2009 finds me growing even closer to the Podcasters of Bree, Revelry and Honor, and What Would Thrall Do.
• The will, intelligence, writing skill, and patience required to run Massively.com. I’ll be honest, a year ago I never in a million years would have imagined I’d be running an MMO news site. It’s exactly, precisely what I’ve been working towards for the last few years and I feel incredibly lucky to be here. It’s hard, it’s challenging, it’s stressful, and to be honest it doesn’t pay that well. But it’s Massively, and I’ve got lots and lots of love.
• The energy to recommit to doing the MMOG Nation Broadcast … a podcast that should be returning soon!
• And, of course, the dedication to keep the feed alive here at MMOG Nation.

Feel free to drop in what presents you want from the industry next year in the comments.

Ed Stark and Dave Williams are veterans of the tabletop gaming industry. Between the two they’ve had a hand in publishing major revamps of pen and paper roleplaying systems, popular trading card games, and a number of board games.

Between the two they’ve had a hand in the revamp of Dungeons and Dragons to the 3.0 rule set, the Legend of the Five Rings RPG, the West End Star Wars Roleplaying game, and numerous card- and board- games.

Last year they joined the still-running-silent, VC-backed MMO developer Red 5, based out of Orange County, California – the World Of Warcraft veteran-founded company has been in existence since 2005, has $18.5 million in backing from Benchmark Capital and Sierra Ventures, and most recently announced former Oracle exec Michael Weingartner joining the firm as VP of engineering.

So then:

1. Is It Cold In Here or Is It Just Me? – Wrath of the Lich King won’t come out in 2008. We’ll have a firm release date (of early 2009) for the expansion by late summer, and there are as-yet-unannounced features slated for the content update. Blizzard has Hydralisks to fry this year.
2. Nickel and Dime – The concept of RMT and microtransactions will continue to gain acceptance with North American gamers. This will be reflected commercially by further successes for MapleStory and Nexon’s other games in the US. Other companies will begin to consider alternatives to the flat subscription fee, even if outright RMT/microtransactions aren’t yet on the table. At least one newly announced game this year will feature a non-subscription schema.
3. Call Me Agent Smith – The Agency is going to go over like gangbusters. A flat box fee with only microtransactions for further goodies is going to make a big impression … if it can make it out this year. Sometime mid-to-late summer would be perfect. This could even be one of the killer apps for the PS3 this year. Which is good, because it needs it. FreeRealms, on the other hand, is going to have a rough go of it. Without clear player understanding of what exactly this humor/fantasy MMOG thingie is, it’s going to take some time for it to take off.
4. WAAAAUGH For the Win – Warhammer is also going to be a big hit … though it perhaps won’t be everything that EA is hoping for. Long-term MMOG fans are going to fall in love all over again just the same. By the end of the year the house that Jacobs built is going to be very happy for all the extra hard work they put in. Conan will be a much less resounding success. It’s not going to fail, but Funcom is going to end 2008 more than a little bit frustrated.
5. Sunglasses At Night – The CCP/White Wolf game is going to be big news this year, as they announce the scope of the world. It’s not going to be everything that World of Darkness fans would have hoped for, but there will still be a lot of happy gothsicles.
6. Out of Left Field – One of the newbie studios (Carbine, Red 5) is going to announce a project that will really excite and surprise Massive fans. 38 Studios will announce what they’re doing, and it won’t surprise anyone … but it will be somewhat interesting.
7. Pushback – There’s going to be yet another major AAA title whose release date is pushed back to late in the year. One of the big games that we think is going to come out in 2008, won’t.
8. The Age Gets Darker – WAR’s release will be a very dark day for the already dimly-lit Ages of Camelot. Their emulation of Mythic’s older game’s defining feature, coupled with a better PvE experience in essentially every way, will see a lot of players heading for the hills.
9. The Legacy of McQuaid – At some point, Vanguard players are going to get tired of waiting around for ‘the good’ to show up in their game. Expect to see some of Vanguard’s best features showing up in EverQuest 2.
10. With the Brim Pulled Way Down Low – We’re going to see another live game close up shop this year, and an in-development title will slip into the unseen depths as well.
11. Way To Cast – Another MMO dev or publisher will join Blizzard and SOE in making an official podcast.
12. Coming of Age – Tabula Rasa is going to maintain a steady playerbase throughout the year as folks enjoy the new and exciting flavour. Turbine will continue to not report LOTRO’s subscription numbers, for a reason.
13. Okay For Serious This Time – BioWare will announce what they’re making in Austin. For reals, guys. C’mon! :)

2008’s Winners: Warhammer Online, The Agency, MapleStory, New Studios

2008’s Losers: Dark Age of Camelot, Vanguard, Age of Conan

So I’ve been kind of surprised that more of a big deal hasn’t been made of the talent drain the company has been undergoing for the past year or so. From high profile folks like Moorgard, Blackguard, and now Scott Hartsman to lower-level community folks, programmers, designers, and artists, there seems to be a general current of talented people flowing away from the monolith.

So why are people leaving the company? What’s prompting this trend? Is it very widespread and (more importantly for the players) what does it mean for their games? And, of course, you can’t help but wonder what this means for the industry in general. Or, at least, I can’t.

The why is the easy part, of course. I don’t have anyone’s job offer in front of me, but it’s easy to make educated guesses. In high-profile cases like the former EQ community folks, small and well-funded studios probably used the ‘dumptruck full of money’ argument. While I’m sure they were being well compensated by Sony, startups tend to be in that ‘long on cash, short of manpower’ phase that makes for some crazy salary offers. Even without the big bucks, both high-profile and tireless trench-worker alike could easily be swayed by the allure of new blood. Why work for the man when someone is trying something new and different?

The trend of folks leaving is harder to pin down, but I think it’s a case of timing and (of course) World of Warcraft. But not directly; I don’t think WoW is making people leave SOE through any direct application. What WoW is doing is 1.) shaking the money trees to make it possible for startups to happen and 2.) training up rafts and rafts of designers/programmers/artists which will look good staffing up these new companies. SOE folks will get hired into the mix too, of course, because they don’t hire slouches over there. Then on the marketing page you can say stuff like ‘developed by veterans of seven different publishers’, or something like that.

The widespread nature of this trend is something I can’t speak to at all, but the departure of several high-profile folks says a few things clearly. Some less visible folks have also made their way to greener pastures, but how many … that’s why this is an editorial and not an article, you know?

What will this mean for their games? If this is general trend at the company, this could eventually lead to problems. Not because of lack of staffing, or of poor staff … but most likely from a lot of new staff. It takes time to train people in how to make these games, in some cases a loooong time. Every developer, producer, or CM they lose results in an intimidating training period for replacements. Enough of those and you could have some pushed release dates or unhappy players.

I definitely think that these departures are indicative of the industry in general. So far in the MMOG market the SOP has been for large publishers to release portfolios of AAA games, banking on the successful ones to shore up the ones that are less so. But all signs now point to that being a thing of the past. Auto Assault was canned outright, a choice NCsoft may not have made a few years ago. Perpetual’s explosion speaks volumes. SOE itself seems to be unaffected at the moment, but I think their decision to entertain alternative payment options for their upcoming games says a lot about the way the winds are blowing.

In the not-too-distant-future all these startups are going to be hatching their several-million-dollar eggs onto the MMOG scene. While most of us are spending time thinking about games like Warhammer, Conan, and BioWare’s game KOTORO, Carbine Studios, 38 Studios and Red 5 are doing seekrit things in the darkness. The folks that are going to make those games have to come from somewhere. The MMOG industry is finally getting to the point where there are plenty of talented workers with past MMOG releases on their resumes … and a lot of them work for those big publishers that these new kids are hoping to usurp.

That makes NCsoft, Blizzard, and SOE prime candidates for employee poaching. In fact, I actually imagine that SOE’s departures are only ‘notable’ insofar as people have had names to attach to the departures. Folks hired away from the developers of Lineage or Final Fantasy XI aren’t going to be noticed as much as ‘names’ like Blackguard.

So in the end, this isn’t really an ‘SOE Brain Drain’. It’s more of a trend of folks taking the chance to get in on the ground floor of the ‘next phase’ of the MMO industry. While these departures may eventually have an effect on games from the big publishers, I think in the larger picture they’re indicative of industry growth. And that … in the long run … is a good thing for everybody.