A while back Steve Danuser put up a post weighing in on the fate of Tabula Rasa. His was but one of many, with Scott, Damion, Eric, and Adam all putting in their two cents as well. I can’t hope to add anything to this discussion that hasn’t already been mulled by these guys, but I do want to clarify something that Steve links into. He says, “So if these guys are so smart, and if making a AAA epic fantasy MMO is a solved problem, then why did so many games have a rough year in 2008?”

“Making a AAA fantasy game is a solved problem” is something I said in my 2008 MMO wrapup on Gamasutra, and it’s something I’ve said frequently in the past. And I mean it. AAA fantasy games are ‘solved’, the formulae is complete, development and iteration on that particular niche of the niche market can stop now.

I never said anything about making one being easy.

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Instead of the usual enormous blog post (which I used both in 2007 and 2006) I decided to take a different tack this year. Below are embedded a pair of videos running down my thoughts on the upcoming year. Enjoy!

A year ago, at the close of 2007, I threw out some prognostications about the coming 12 months. Those months have now passed and it’s time to pay the piper. Just as with last year I’m going to grade my predictions on a straight pass/fail basis; percentages are for actuarials.
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Seeing as I actually got a lot of the presents I asked for this year, I can’t help but pitch in and ask Santa for some more goodies next year. Every year, around the world, we secularly ask ‘Saint Nick’ for loot under the Christmas tree. I’ll try not to buck the trend. As I’ve put out for the last two years, here is what I want to see under the MMO industry tree figuratively for the next twelve months. Come on, MMO industry: gimme some pretty packages!

Here’s what I want for my 2009 year in MMOs:

• Mega-quantities of awesome from SOE. Agency, Free Realms, and DC Universe Online are all very near the top of my awesomedar. I am really looking forward to the Free Realms Beta, and my hope is that Agency will go into Beta at some point near the end of the year. I don’t imagine we’ll be seeing much of DCUO publicly, but at least one more chance to play that kickass demo would be much appreciated.
• An ongoing stream of content from BioWare about The Old Republic. Not only am I personally really thrilled that we’re finally getting something, professionally I can’t get enough of that SWTOR.
• The lads at 38 have told us that we should see real news on Copernicus sometime in early summer. I want their kickoff to be a huge splash, their content to be incredibly well-received, and their design to be absolutely inspired. I’ll be straight: I think they’ve got a long haul ahead of them. The fantasy genre is going to be hell and a half to enter as a direct competitor to WoW. But if they want to give it a try, who am I to stand in their way or do anything but cheerlead from the sidelines?
• After one of my favorite interviews of the year with two gents from Red 5, I have been obsessed about getting more details on their game. I would absolutely love to know what the hell they’re doing down there. More than any other ‘dark’ company right now, Red 5 is making the game that I’m desperate to explore. Here’s hoping they give us a bit more insight on their plans thiscoming year.
• I’m greedy, I know, but I really want a look at Guild Wars 2 as well. It’s been more than a year since Arena.net put out Eye of the North, and GW2 was well along in development back in that point. While I completely understand why it’s not out yet, the tomb-like silence that we’ve seen from the company on the topic of their sequel to their groundbreaking title has been a bit unnerving. I really hope Arena will finally be able to throw back the curtain and give us a look at the goods.
• Tons of success to my fellow MMO bloggers and podcasters, be they industry paragons like Scott or enthusiast juggernauts like Tim (Van Hemlock). While I know I don’t contribute a lot from this domain much any more, I’d like to think that the MMOblogosphere is a pretty darn special place to be hanging your hat. Here’s hoping it continues in 2009.
• Continued good gaming vibes and personal connections between myself and my guilds! A year ago I was a boring-as-hell soloer, and now I have a community in all three of my primary MMOs! I hope that 2009 finds me growing even closer to the Podcasters of Bree, Revelry and Honor, and What Would Thrall Do.
• The will, intelligence, writing skill, and patience required to run Massively.com. I’ll be honest, a year ago I never in a million years would have imagined I’d be running an MMO news site. It’s exactly, precisely what I’ve been working towards for the last few years and I feel incredibly lucky to be here. It’s hard, it’s challenging, it’s stressful, and to be honest it doesn’t pay that well. But it’s Massively, and I’ve got lots and lots of love.
• The energy to recommit to doing the MMOG Nation Broadcast … a podcast that should be returning soon!
• And, of course, the dedication to keep the feed alive here at MMOG Nation.

Feel free to drop in what presents you want from the industry next year in the comments.

Joystiq and Massively are cross-posting a piece I wrote up on The Agency, one of the two darlings of SOE’s hotel suite at CES. Basically the idea was that everyone had already seen the video and such by the time we’d already got back. So I took the audio from a chat Chris Grant and Barb Dybwad did with the devs + the one I and Dan O’Halloran had, and I diffed between the three sources of information. The result is what you see at the site.

Some of the most interesting tidbits the developers were willing to discuss that day weren’t on the guided tour. Lead Designer Hal Milton and Design Director Matt Wilson were willing and able to discuss several aspects of the project still in the development stages with us and our friends at Massively; we were able to pick their brains on the game’s business model, the fantastic world they’re creating, character advancement, future content additions, and the numerous challenges of creating a game that straddles two platforms.

Because it’s all informational, there’s no real room for me to include my opinion of the game in there. That’s what this place is for. To put a point on it: The Agency is my new ‘game of the future’. Since I started digging on these games back in the day I’ve always had some game or another to look forward to, a game to keep me enthusiastically reading sites like Lum the Mad back in the day. The period I remember most vividly with ‘future games’ was the time early in my post-college working period where SWG and WoW were both in-development. I spent endless lunch hours pining for those games, looking forward to their release. I read every update, every piece of information, every dev blog … it was a good time. Over 2007 I spent much of the year looking forward to Warhammer Online, and now the launch of the greenskins is fast approaching.

So, I need a new star on the horizon. The Agency has definitely stepped up. Sitting and listening to Hal Milton do his thing is inspiring. He and Matt Wilson are so obviously smart, so obviously ‘getting’ what it is that they need to do in order to make this game a success, that it’s fun just to watch them expound. If The Agency fails, it’s not going to be because of a lack of courage, or because of a lack of good ideas. And in fact, the game is showing signs of being one of the biggest sure-fire successes SOE has ever done. Already a solid play experience (apparently) in a Pre-alpha state, the team plans on having their featureset frozen by the time they leave alpha. This means the Beta phase will be nothing but iterating on content, getting the polish right. IE: just what everyone has been saying since Blizzard’s game released.

I can’t wait to get my hands on the controls of this game. Just watching the video was inspiring. It’s great … fantastic even … to feel this way about a game again. The Agency looks like it’s more than just a breath of fresh air’ or ‘new paint’, but a fundamentally different way to play with my friends in a MMOG.

Here’s hoping their efforts bear the variety of fruit they’re reaching so far out on that limb to grab.

It’s becoming a running trend for me not to note MMOG Nation’s birthday (Jan 9th) as it goes past. I was either sick or on the road in early 2007, and this year I was both. I have had the creeping crud lodged in my chest since I got back from CES, regrettably. That’s been really good for MMOG playing, and really bad for things like working. Which, as you may have noticed, is something I enjoy doing.

In any case, to commemorate the site’s second anniversary I thought I’d drop a headpat on few personal favorites things from the past year. I’m not going to even tongue-in-cheek call them ‘awards’ like I did last year; these are just the things that made me well pleased in the past twelve months.

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It’s been an amazing year in MMOGs. I think 2008 is going to be just as big a deal, though … and in some ways maybe even bigger. As I did last year (relatively well, I might add) I’m going to try to call some shots. Again, I’m just a guy and this is all in good fun. But I’ll keep myself honest: we’ll see how I did this time next year.

So then:

1. Is It Cold In Here or Is It Just Me? – Wrath of the Lich King won’t come out in 2008. We’ll have a firm release date (of early 2009) for the expansion by late summer, and there are as-yet-unannounced features slated for the content update. Blizzard has Hydralisks to fry this year.
2. Nickel and Dime – The concept of RMT and microtransactions will continue to gain acceptance with North American gamers. This will be reflected commercially by further successes for MapleStory and Nexon’s other games in the US. Other companies will begin to consider alternatives to the flat subscription fee, even if outright RMT/microtransactions aren’t yet on the table. At least one newly announced game this year will feature a non-subscription schema.
3. Call Me Agent Smith – The Agency is going to go over like gangbusters. A flat box fee with only microtransactions for further goodies is going to make a big impression … if it can make it out this year. Sometime mid-to-late summer would be perfect. This could even be one of the killer apps for the PS3 this year. Which is good, because it needs it. FreeRealms, on the other hand, is going to have a rough go of it. Without clear player understanding of what exactly this humor/fantasy MMOG thingie is, it’s going to take some time for it to take off.
4. WAAAAUGH For the Win – Warhammer is also going to be a big hit … though it perhaps won’t be everything that EA is hoping for. Long-term MMOG fans are going to fall in love all over again just the same. By the end of the year the house that Jacobs built is going to be very happy for all the extra hard work they put in. Conan will be a much less resounding success. It’s not going to fail, but Funcom is going to end 2008 more than a little bit frustrated.
5. Sunglasses At Night – The CCP/White Wolf game is going to be big news this year, as they announce the scope of the world. It’s not going to be everything that World of Darkness fans would have hoped for, but there will still be a lot of happy gothsicles.
6. Out of Left Field – One of the newbie studios (Carbine, Red 5) is going to announce a project that will really excite and surprise Massive fans. 38 Studios will announce what they’re doing, and it won’t surprise anyone … but it will be somewhat interesting.
7. Pushback – There’s going to be yet another major AAA title whose release date is pushed back to late in the year. One of the big games that we think is going to come out in 2008, won’t.
8. The Age Gets Darker – WAR’s release will be a very dark day for the already dimly-lit Ages of Camelot. Their emulation of Mythic’s older game’s defining feature, coupled with a better PvE experience in essentially every way, will see a lot of players heading for the hills.
9. The Legacy of McQuaid – At some point, Vanguard players are going to get tired of waiting around for ‘the good’ to show up in their game. Expect to see some of Vanguard’s best features showing up in EverQuest 2.
10. With the Brim Pulled Way Down Low – We’re going to see another live game close up shop this year, and an in-development title will slip into the unseen depths as well.
11. Way To Cast – Another MMO dev or publisher will join Blizzard and SOE in making an official podcast.
12. Coming of Age – Tabula Rasa is going to maintain a steady playerbase throughout the year as folks enjoy the new and exciting flavour. Turbine will continue to not report LOTRO’s subscription numbers, for a reason.
13. Okay For Serious This Time – BioWare will announce what they’re making in Austin. For reals, guys. C’mon! :)

2008’s Winners: Warhammer Online, The Agency, MapleStory, New Studios

2008’s Losers: Dark Age of Camelot, Vanguard, Age of Conan