Wrath of the Lich King won’t come out in 2008.

So. Not a good start here. Fail. But I will point out that I wasn’t alone in thinking this would be the case. Plus, I’m really glad it did come out. Good stuff, and nice job Blizz.

The concept of RMT and microtransactions will continue to gain acceptance with North American gamers. This will be reflected commercially by further successes for MapleStory and Nexon’s other games in the US.

Big pass. Nexon was big business this year, and MT made big inroads with a bunch of different games already out.

Other companies will begin to consider alternatives to the flat subscription fee, even if outright RMT/microtransactions aren’t yet on the table. At least one newly announced game this year will feature a non-subscription schema.

I’m going to say this is like a double-pass. If that’s possible. SOE’s Station Cash service is a big ‘alternative to the fat subscription fee’, as is NCsoft’s adoption of its own cash system and City of Heroes Boosters. SWTOR’s non-subscription schema definitely counts for that last point.

The Agency is going to go over like gangbusters … FreeRealms, on the other hand, is going to have a rough go of it.

I’m going to call this a fail. Obviously Agency didn’t come out this year, and Free Realms looks better and better every time I see it. Just the same, I think SOE still has its work cut out for it making gamers and non-gamers understand what these titles are ‘about’.

Warhammer is also going to be a big hit, though it perhaps won’t be everything that EA is hoping for … Conan will be a much less resounding success. It’s not going to fail, but Funcom is going to end 2008 more than a little bit frustrated.

I’m going to call this a pass. Obviously my hopes for Warhammer haven’t gone quite as far as I would have liked, but I think I was pretty close there. And my sense that Conan wouldn’t do as well as Warhammer has, I think, borne out.

The CCP/White Wolf game is going to be big news this year.

Aherm. Fail. That said, the more I think about the possibilities of CCP’s experience with a one-world/one-server game applied to a non-space game the more excited I get. I’d really like to see what a game with avatars in a one-server space would look like.

One of the newbie studios (Carbine, Red 5) is going to announce a project that will really excite and surprise Massive fans. 38 Studios will announce what they’re doing, and it won’t surprise anyone … but it will be somewhat interesting.

Fail. But, again, we have big and tantalizing hints about what’s coming down the pipe from these companies. Big things on the horizon.

There’s going to be yet another major AAA title whose release date is pushed back to late in the year. One of the big games that we think is going to come out in 2008, won’t.

WAR was slated for early 08 and got pushed back, so ding there. There were a number of games loosely slated for 08 that have slid to 09, so I’m going to call this a total success.

At some point, Vanguard players are going to get tired of waiting around for ‘the good’ to show up in their game. Expect to see some of Vanguard’s best features showing up in EverQuest 2.

I’m going to give myself a half-point for this. I don’t think there’s been a mass exodus from Vanguard or anything, but I’m told by Karen that my point about features migrating to EQ2 was pretty spot on.

We’re going to see another live game close up shop this year, and an in-development title will slip into the unseen depths as well.

Well. Shit. Right on both. TR is closing up, Hellgate slid beneath the waves, and Mythos (among others) went the way of the dodo. Pass.

Another MMO dev or publisher will join Blizzard and SOE in making an official podcast.

Pass. NCsoft has one now too.

Tabula Rasa is going to maintain a steady playerbase throughout the year as folks enjoy the new and exciting flavour. Turbine will continue to not report LOTRO’s subscription numbers, for a reason.

Epic fail Zenke. I especially want to upbraid myself for that LotRO crack, because I’m now officially a Middle-earth fanboy.

BioWare will announce what they’re making in Austin.

Yayyyy! Pass! And finally! Let’s all sing The Old Republic song now!

Right: 6.5

Wrong: 5.5

Wow, I managed to get the exact same ratio this year as last year. Nice job me. That must mean that tomorrow is my day for calling next year’s shots. I think I’m going to do a bit more going out on a limb . Maybe.

So then:

1. Is It Cold In Here or Is It Just Me? – Wrath of the Lich King won’t come out in 2008. We’ll have a firm release date (of early 2009) for the expansion by late summer, and there are as-yet-unannounced features slated for the content update. Blizzard has Hydralisks to fry this year.
2. Nickel and Dime – The concept of RMT and microtransactions will continue to gain acceptance with North American gamers. This will be reflected commercially by further successes for MapleStory and Nexon’s other games in the US. Other companies will begin to consider alternatives to the flat subscription fee, even if outright RMT/microtransactions aren’t yet on the table. At least one newly announced game this year will feature a non-subscription schema.
3. Call Me Agent Smith – The Agency is going to go over like gangbusters. A flat box fee with only microtransactions for further goodies is going to make a big impression … if it can make it out this year. Sometime mid-to-late summer would be perfect. This could even be one of the killer apps for the PS3 this year. Which is good, because it needs it. FreeRealms, on the other hand, is going to have a rough go of it. Without clear player understanding of what exactly this humor/fantasy MMOG thingie is, it’s going to take some time for it to take off.
4. WAAAAUGH For the Win – Warhammer is also going to be a big hit … though it perhaps won’t be everything that EA is hoping for. Long-term MMOG fans are going to fall in love all over again just the same. By the end of the year the house that Jacobs built is going to be very happy for all the extra hard work they put in. Conan will be a much less resounding success. It’s not going to fail, but Funcom is going to end 2008 more than a little bit frustrated.
5. Sunglasses At Night – The CCP/White Wolf game is going to be big news this year, as they announce the scope of the world. It’s not going to be everything that World of Darkness fans would have hoped for, but there will still be a lot of happy gothsicles.
6. Out of Left Field – One of the newbie studios (Carbine, Red 5) is going to announce a project that will really excite and surprise Massive fans. 38 Studios will announce what they’re doing, and it won’t surprise anyone … but it will be somewhat interesting.
7. Pushback – There’s going to be yet another major AAA title whose release date is pushed back to late in the year. One of the big games that we think is going to come out in 2008, won’t.
8. The Age Gets Darker – WAR’s release will be a very dark day for the already dimly-lit Ages of Camelot. Their emulation of Mythic’s older game’s defining feature, coupled with a better PvE experience in essentially every way, will see a lot of players heading for the hills.
9. The Legacy of McQuaid – At some point, Vanguard players are going to get tired of waiting around for ‘the good’ to show up in their game. Expect to see some of Vanguard’s best features showing up in EverQuest 2.
10. With the Brim Pulled Way Down Low – We’re going to see another live game close up shop this year, and an in-development title will slip into the unseen depths as well.
11. Way To Cast – Another MMO dev or publisher will join Blizzard and SOE in making an official podcast.
12. Coming of Age – Tabula Rasa is going to maintain a steady playerbase throughout the year as folks enjoy the new and exciting flavour. Turbine will continue to not report LOTRO’s subscription numbers, for a reason.
13. Okay For Serious This Time – BioWare will announce what they’re making in Austin. For reals, guys. C’mon! :)

2008’s Winners: Warhammer Online, The Agency, MapleStory, New Studios

2008’s Losers: Dark Age of Camelot, Vanguard, Age of Conan